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18 Jul 2007

Youth Bulge Theory

I stumbled upon an article today that gave an alternative perspective on the war in Afghanistan, using youth-bulge theories and demographics as a source of wars and violence in general. The article can be found at: http://opendemocracy.com/conflicts/democracy_terror/islamism_war_demographics_rage

It is not scriptures from holy books or poverty that drives the conflict in Afghanistan, the article says. Rather, it is the "youth bulge" that spurs this violence. In fact, poverty alleviation actually can actually fuel the violence, given the youth bulge condition present.

To better understand how poverty alleviation with the youth buldge condition actually fuels violence is to first understand youth bulge. Youth bulge theory posits that, based on the study of history, shows clearly that when 30% or more of a nation's male inhabitants are in the 15-29 age bracket, the result is chaos, violence and upheaval. This creates a huge pool of economically superfluous young men who, because of humanitarian aid, are not in hunger, fed, but out of jobs. To get those limited positions in society, they will fight for it, and for fed and able-bodied men with no jobs, starting and sustaining fights on the basis for survival is not hard to fathom.

However, in order not to appear as cold-blooeded killers fighting for themselves, many of these men take lofty stand-points to come across as "honourable executioners" of the elites. Hence, because of this adament inclinations to use religious rhetoric as a cover of their cause, an appeal to rational interpretations of religious scriptures will hardly dent their violent "fanaticism".

Looking at Afghanistan's "reservoir" of fighters coming from its burgeoning young males, greatly outnumbers the number of soldiers NATO can put on the frontlines. While the article does not provide any solution, it leaves me guessing what kind of solutions the West and other policy-makers may put forth in light of this demographic-driven war.

Any solutions to suggest?

Uncle T